Jai-Alai Question of the Week

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#78 - How do you bet the SUPER Superfecta carryover? (Part 2 of 2)

Posted on February 8, 2005 at 11:56:18 AM by Tiger

(It’s been a while, so there’s a link to Part 1 below)

There are actually 3 different situations:

The ever-increasing jackpot changes the payoff dynamics each time it happens. And, as the per-game pool increases, does playing consolations (as an angle) make more sense?

Here’s what one of you said:

I will only bet a carryover because the super pools are way to small. If there is a double-carry and I'm watching online, then I'll head to the nearest parimutual and take a shot. The only problem is,in the event of a double-carry there are animals who bet about $800 to cover all of the probable combos, making a lousy payoff. For instance, about three months ago the first three supers carried and the pool in the 12th reached over 10g's. The game ended 8-1-3-7 and the payout was like $1500 for a $2 bet. That means about fifteen people hit it at a $1 bet each. Now those are some tough numbers, and two of the teams were longshots in the quin/exacta pools.

Does the presumably-increasing per-game betting pool stay proportionally the same, combo-wise, or are there detectable shifts?

Do box bettors screw up the good payoffs when a long one comes in?

So, I ran some numbers:
For the first 250 performances(1,000 games):

Game #Consol 1-carry 2-carry 3-carry
 4      84      75      8       1
 7      44      42      2       n/a
 9      45      45      n/a     n/a
12      40      n/a     n/a     n/a
Total  213     162     10       1

Therefore, there is a consolation in about 21 percent of the games, a carryover in about 17 percent of the games.

Consolations were twice as likely in Game 4 as in the other cames. Explanations sought. Late arrivals=smaller pool?

Game 4 Average Net Pools by day (when there was a carry-over)

        Count    Pool
Sun      14       957
Mon       1       680
Tue Mat  17     1,017
Tue Eve   8     1,129
Wed       9     1,217
Thu       4     1,400
Fri       7     1,144
Sat Mat  12     1,006
Sat Eve  10     1,147
         --     -----
Tot/Avg  82     1,079

Throwing out the Monday special performance, we see that the larger the pool, the fewer the carryovers (Duh!)

The average Game 4 carryover ($810) exceeds the takeout (average = $450) for Game 7. Thus, Game 7 has a POSITIVE EXPECTATION !!! The same applies to games 9 and 12, and the effect increases if there are multiple carryovers.

The only TRIPLE carryover added nearly $7,000 to the Game 12 pool.

My data is incomplete and still a bit crude, but it is clear that per game Superfecta betting INCREASES (probably about 50%) when there is a carryover from the previous game. Even more so (double) if there's a double carryover. Can't say yet if the HANDLE actually increases (I'm gonna have to watch the exact pools as it happens) - it's quite possible that bettors chasing the Super/Super carryover don't make their normal Trifecta bets. We'll see.

Interestingly, the use of the Super/Super carryover as a marketing incentive is self-limiting, because the more people that show up due to the promotion, the less likely is a consolation (and carryover).

Part 1 - What's with Dania's SUPER Superfecta?


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