(Its been a while, so theres a link to Part 1 below)
There are actually 3 different situations:
1. Normal games, without a carryover (ALWAYS in Game 4)
2. Games with 1 or 2 carryovers (could happen in Games 7 or 9), no force
3. Games with 1, 2, or 3 carryovers and forced payout (Game 12 ONLY)
The ever-increasing jackpot changes the payoff dynamics each
time it happens. And, as the per-game pool increases, does playing
consolations (as an angle) make more sense?
Heres what one of you said:
I will only bet a carryover because the super pools are way to small. If there is a double-carry and I'm watching online, then I'll head to the nearest parimutual and take a shot. The only problem is,in the event of a double-carry there are animals who bet about $800 to cover all of the probable combos, making a lousy payoff. For instance, about three months ago the first three supers carried and the pool in the 12th reached over 10g's. The game ended 8-1-3-7 and the payout was like $1500 for a $2 bet. That means about fifteen people hit it at a $1 bet each. Now those are some tough numbers, and two of the teams were longshots in the quin/exacta pools.
Does the presumably-increasing per-game betting pool stay proportionally
the same, combo-wise, or are there detectable shifts?
Do box bettors screw up the good payoffs when a long one comes in?
So, I ran some numbers:
For the first 250 performances(1,000 games):
Game #Consol 1-carry 2-carry 3-carry 4 84 75 8 1 7 44 42 2 n/a 9 45 45 n/a n/a 12 40 n/a n/a n/a Total 213 162 10 1
Therefore, there is a consolation in about 21 percent of the
games, a carryover in about 17 percent of the games.
Consolations were twice as likely in Game 4 as in the other cames. Explanations sought. Late arrivals=smaller pool?
Game 4 Average Net Pools by day (when there was a carry-over)
Count Pool Sun 14 957 Mon 1 680 Tue Mat 17 1,017 Tue Eve 8 1,129 Wed 9 1,217 Thu 4 1,400 Fri 7 1,144 Sat Mat 12 1,006 Sat Eve 10 1,147 -- ----- Tot/Avg 82 1,079
Throwing out the Monday special performance, we see that the
larger the pool, the fewer the carryovers (Duh!)
The average Game 4 carryover ($810) exceeds the takeout (average = $450) for Game 7. Thus, Game 7 has a POSITIVE EXPECTATION !!! The same applies to games 9 and 12, and the effect increases if there are multiple carryovers.
The only TRIPLE carryover added nearly $7,000 to the Game 12 pool.
My data is incomplete and still a bit crude, but it is clear that per game Superfecta betting INCREASES (probably about 50%) when there is a carryover from the previous game. Even more so (double) if there's a double carryover. Can't say yet if the HANDLE actually increases (I'm gonna have to watch the exact pools as it happens) - it's quite possible that bettors chasing the Super/Super carryover don't make their normal Trifecta bets. We'll see.
Interestingly, the use of the Super/Super carryover as a marketing incentive is self-limiting, because the more people that show up due to the promotion, the less likely is a consolation (and carryover).
Part 1 - What's with Dania's SUPER Superfecta?