Sh!t happens, and runouts, too. How do you deal with them?
- Constantly looking and evaluating
- A significant factor
- Consider it, but not all the time
- Don't consider it
- What's a runout?
First-round runouts are easy to compute. For a 7-point game:
- Teams 1, 2 and 3 need 7 straight points (1 chance in 128)
to end the game
- Teams 4 and 5 need 6 points (1 in 64)
- Teams 6 and 7 need 5 points (1 in 32)
- Team 8 needs 4 points(1 in 16)
For a 9-point game:
- Teams 1, 2 and 3 need 8 points (1 in 256)
- Teams 4 and 5 need 7 points (1 in 128)
- Teams 6 and 7 need 6 points (1 in 64)
- Team 8 needs 5 points (1 in 32)
With some extra work, we can also determine 2nd round runout
possibilities. It would never take more than 4 points - less,
depending on how many points were made in the first round (and
if you GET a second chance). Hardly worth it, though, 'cause the
high-probability stuff is behind us. You could work it out, but
it's kinda like debating about how many angels can dance on the
head of a pin.
So, what use do you make of this info? What outcomes do you look for, or avoid?