Tiger's note: 8 messages from the original discussion were lost when the
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The follow-up thread, with tabular analysis and discussion, is complete.
How 'bout them exactas? Let's say you like #2 and #3, but don't want to bet 2 exactas, so you bet one Quiniela instead. Is it really the same?
Data for Miami '02 (Winter-Spring) 3,110 games
Quiniela bet = $2
Exacta bet = $3
Most frequent combo #times Avg pay Per $ Quiniela 2-3 205 27.44 .90 Exacta 2-3 79 91.89 .78 Exacta 3-2 126 78.00 1.05 Both Exactas 205 83.35 .92 Least frequent combo #times Avg pay Per $ Quiniela 7-8 31 105.21 .52 Exacta 7-8 7 294.94 .22 Exacta 8-7 24 323.98 .83 Both Exactas 35 317.42 .53
Imagine, the 8-7 Exacta actually paid more (on average) than the 7-8
CAUTION: These results are for one season only.
Anyway, for these two (atypical?) combos, it looks like 1 Quiniela vs, 2 Exactas is a wash - no apparent difference in the overall total payout.
But, look at those exactas again! For each pair of numbers, there's a good one and a bad one. Maybe,.....we should just bet the good ones.
What do YOU do?
I'll publish all the combos after you guys have had a chance to chime in
Well, the opinions are in, so here's the entire table (link below).
Note there do seem to be some differences, both plus and minus, but remember, it's only for one season and the numbers are small.
Of greater interest, I think, are some of the wide discrepancies for the exacta pairs.
Quiniela vs. Exacta boxing